Author, speaker, and econometrician Les Binet has been identifying new ways to measure the effects of advertising on the bottom line for nearly four decades. He’s won more IPA Advertising Effectiveness Awards than anyone else in the history of the competition.
From my early days as an econometrician to my current role as an independent consultant, I've had a front-row seat to the evolution of marketing measurement. And let me tell you, it's been quite a ride.
I’ve seen trends come and go — and pendulums swing back and forth. In the nascent days of the internet, a seemingly revolutionary concept emerged: online attribution. Marketers could track clicks on banner ads. This approach, while appearing novel, mirrored age-old direct response methods. Think coupon responses in print advertising from the early 1900s.
The allure of counting clicks, while powerful, often led marketers down a path of misattribution. Not every click translated to a genuine, incremental conversion. This early focus on direct response, while providing some data, often obscured the broader picture of marketing's impact.
But amidst this, there have been genuine breakthroughs. For me, one such epiphany occurred while working on an econometric model for an insurance company. We combined direct attribution, experiments, and marketing mix modelling — a trifecta that allowed us to predict call centre volumes with astonishing accuracy, within 1%, month after month. This experience was the genesis of my understanding of the long and the short of it, and the importance of a holistic approach to measurement.
Today, I'm heartened to see tools like Google's Meridian embracing this approach. This is precisely the kind of innovation we need to move the industry forward.
Econometrics: More than just marketing mix modelling
Many marketers know econometrics as marketing mix modelling (MMM), but it's so much more than that. Econometrics is a powerful discipline with applications far beyond marketing, and it has become hyper-relevant again in 2025 because it allows us to understand the impact of various factors on business outcomes.
It helps us answer the questions we’re all looking at in today’s fast-paced industry, like: What is the impact of our TV advertising on sales? How does pricing affect demand? What is the role of seasonality in our business?
MMMs provide a powerful lens for understanding the overall impact of your marketing mix on business outcomes. It helps you see the bigger picture, revealing how different channels work together and interact over time. But MMM alone can sometimes lack the granularity to pinpoint the precise impact of individual actions.
That's where incremental experiments shine. By systematically testing different approaches, you gain invaluable insights into cause and effect. Experiments allow you to isolate variables and confidently attribute results to specific changes in your strategy. However, experiments can be costly and time-consuming, and they may not always be feasible for every marketing activity.
Direct attribution, with its focus on clicks, conversions, and last-touchpoints, offers a readily available and easily digestible view of performance. While valuable for optimising specific campaigns, it can fall short in capturing the entire customer journey — and the influence of various touchpoints that contribute to a conversion.
This is precisely why the modern measurement framework of MMM, experiments, and attribution is so powerful. By combining these methodologies, you can overcome the limitations of each individual approach and gain a truly comprehensive understanding of your marketing effectiveness.
Beyond big data: The power of long data and Google Trends
This modern measurement framework can give you vast amounts of data, but the pursuit of "big data" can sometimes overlook a more valuable resource: long data. Instead of simply accumulating vast quantities of short-term information, marketers also need data that reveals long-term trends.
This means that share of search can be a powerful indicator of brand health and future market performance.
One area where econometrics has proven particularly insightful is in the analysis of share of search; the relationship between organic search queries and market share. There is a strong correlation: movements in share of search often precede movements in market share. This means that share of search can be a powerful indicator of brand health and future market performance.
Google Trends provides a fantastic tool for tracking share of search over time. It offers access to weekly search volumes dating back to 2004, acting as a barometer of consumer interest.
By embracing long data, marketers can move beyond short-term metrics and gain a more profound understanding of the evolving forces shaping consumer behaviour.
The rise of AI: From static to dynamic measurement
Building models and gathering data is only half the battle, however. Rigorous testing is paramount. It's not enough to create a model that looks good on paper; you need to challenge it, probe for weaknesses, and subject it to a battery of statistical tests. This process can be tedious and demanding, but it's the only way to ensure the robustness and reliability of your models.
This is where AI comes in. Imagine a world where measurement models are updated frequently, tested dynamically, and forecasts are generated and compared against actual outcomes in real-time. This approach allows us to constantly refine our strategies and ensure that campaigns remain effective in a rapidly changing market.
AI enables a shift from static, annual analyses to a more agile, responsive approach. Marketers can now make data-driven decisions with greater confidence, knowing that their insights are always up-to-date. By embracing AI and the power of live econometrics, marketers can unlock new levels of efficiency and effectiveness, driving sustainable growth in the years to come.
My insights underscore a timeless truth in marketing: success hinges on understanding how marketing truly works. Measurement is not merely about collecting data; it's about using that data to inform strategic decisions and drive profitable growth. By embracing a multi-faceted approach that considers both short and long-term effects, marketers can gain a more complete picture of their impact.
